Early this summer, Obama appeared to be doing quite well in rather surprising places - Alaska, Virginia, Montana, Indiana, and maybe North Carolina.  In addition he seemed to be holding commanding leads in places like Ohio, Michigan, and the rest of the Upper Midwest.  If these numbers held, Obama would seem to have been on track for a Reagan-esque landslide.  However, these numbers have eased back to our 2000-2004 sense of the probable.  If Obama wins, it will most likely be by less than 10 electoral votes and it'll be by sweeping a series of small states rather than blitzing McCain on all fronts.

Ohio was always going to be an uphill battle for Obama.  His, uh, characteristics aren't necessarily welcome there.  The Deomcratic base is concentrated in urban centers suffering from decades of economic plight, and the mess left by Kenneth Blackwell and now the indicted Democratic Attorney General of Ohio do not seem conducive to a large inner-city turnout in Ohio.

Virginia, I think, is actually more realistic.  The explosive growth of the Northern Virginia area has opened many people's eyes to the need for a functioning government.  Even the staunchly conservative Loudon (sp?) county elected a Slow-Growth county board a few years back.  Plus the influx of urban types into outer-ring DC suburbs dilutes the old-school mentality in other parts of the state.  Nevertheless, I don't see VA turning blue this year.

Obama's strength, then, lies in consolidation and expansion to relative nickel-and-dime states.  New Hampshire, seems ready to elect Obama.  Iowa, the marginally Upper Midwestern state of congeniality, also seems to be on board.  The trick, then is to take two of three growing western states, NM, CO, or NV.  Of these, Obama seems to be doing best in NM and CO.  

The thing to note about this strategy is first that it is geographically broad.  This presents Democrats with an opportunity to capitalize on long-term trends in broadening their base of support past the 2000 and 2004 models.  It may well be that if Obama wins this year, and if he would have a reasonably competent Presidency, that Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, and maybe even North Carolina would be back on the table.  And second point about this strategy is that it has mutiple ifs and weaknesses.

A state-stealing VP pick could bring the whole thing down in shambles.  Romney (MI), Pawlenty (MN), Ridge (PA), or maybe an outside pick like Wayne Allard (CO) could make this election night another long one.  I have trouble seeing the VP pick really changing the playing field all that much.  But if Obama doesn't win MN, it's going to be a long time until another African American has this good of a shot at the Presidency.  Same with any of the other states listed above.

So, just to reiterate.  I think the way the polls look now, barring any unforeseen circumstances - something BIG - are about the map we'll have to work with in November.  The short message is - hurry and move to IA, NH, CO, or NM and register to vote.  Multiple times, preferably.  Or, at the very least.  Hope for the best.